If you are going to bluff in life, you either have to be sure the other guy’s cards are rubbish, or you can afford your bluff being called. ERC (European Rugby Cup) and Unite, both tried to call bluffs, and forgot those basic premises. Neither had the whip hand, and failed to understand that their opponents were serious in their positioning.
The basic ERC situation is explained well by BBC Rugby , ERC had assumed that neither the French nor the English would have the cojones to break away from what is the best club rugby tournament in the world. When the PRL & LNR filed notice in June 2012 they were pulling out, they still didn’t take notice. What they hadn’t planned on was that PRL would do a deal with the emerging BT Sport that would surpass the Sky deal, and offer all participants greater returns. ERC belatedly & unilaterally installed a mediator to try and negotiate a way back, but with the French & English clubs not taking part, it was doomed to failure. For the Celtic nations, the Heineken cup is vital for their survival, and without the English & French Clubs the sponsors would pull out, sounding its death knell. The Welsh Clubs have now sided with the Franglais entente, so what we are seeing from ERC is the final desperate death rattle, no more. It only leaves the details of the final demise of ERC to be worked out. The individual unions will fall into place, they cannot afford internal schisms.
Can Grangemouth survive at all in an industry that relies on cheap power, cheap feedstock, and vast economies of scale? Unite foolishly believed that Ineos would not dare to close the facility. They should have taken more note of how Jim Ratcliffe was manoeuvring them into this confrontational position. The row over union convenor Stephen Deans was merely a stalking horse for the real battle; labour costs. How is it that Unite cannot accept that these days final salary schemes are so prohibitively expensive that they cannot be maintained, and that if Grangemouth closes the under-funding of the existing pension scheme (£200m or so) will be at risk. The Scottish Government are running around trying to patch up some sort of deal, but likely buyers are not queuing up; they have quite sensibly ruled out nationalisation. It may well be that Ineos will be able to secure support & funding for the £300m they say is needed. Unite now appear to have rolled over & will accept the original deal, don’t be surprised if Ineos extract more now they have them against the ropes.
In both cases, relationships post any deal being agreed will be severely stretched, even if there is no other realistic option, but until a deal is struck, both Unite & the Celtic nations will need to be careful, neither has any cards to play anymore.
To view the current discussion and add comments of your own, just click on “Two Bluffs Too Far” above